For as long as human beings have walked upon earth, 只要人类行走在地球上
we've tried to make sense of our world 我们就会尝试理解我们的世界
and predict what the future will bring. 预测未来将会带给我们什么
Yet today, 然而 今天
our lives seem more complicated and unpredictable than ever. 我们的生命似乎比以往更复杂 更难以预测
And half the population of the planet 这个星球的一半人口
now live in busy, sprawling cities. 现在正居住在繁忙且庞大的城市里
Every day throws up thousands of different encounters. 每天有数以千计的不同的遭遇
A mass of interactions and forces that seem beyond our control. 大量超出我们控制范围的作用和力量
WOMAN LAUGHS
It's hard to see how any of this could be connected. 很难看出所有这一切是如何联系在一起的
BABY CRIES
Yet when we start to look closely at all this complexity, 而当我们开始仔细查看所有的这些复杂性时
surprising patterns begin to emerge. 令人惊异的模式开始浮现了
It's these patterns that I believe point to an underlying Code 我相信正是这些模式指向了一个潜在的密码
at the very heart of existence 它存在于事物的核心之处
that controls not only our world and everything in it, but even us. 不仅控制着我们的世界和其中的一切事物。而且控制着我们人类
As a mathematician,I'm fascinated by the patterns we see all around us. 作为一名数学家 我被我们周围所看见的模式深深吸引
Patterns that reflect the hidden connections between everything. 这些模式反映了每件事物之间的隐藏的联系
From the movement of rush hour crowds... 从高峰时间人潮流动
..to the shifting shape of a flock of starlings. 到一群欧椋鸟变化的形状
The cacophony of a billion Internet searches... 十亿互联网搜索的嘈杂声
and the vagaries of the weather. 和天气的变幻莫测
THUNDER ROLLS
CHEERING
Together, these patterns and connections make up the Code. 这些模式和联系 一起构成了密码
A model of our world that describes not only how it works, 一个不但能描述我们的世界是如何运行的模型
but can also predict what our future holds. 而且也能预测我们的未来会拥有什么
Around 500 years ago, a ship was caught in a terrible storm. 大约500年前 一艘船遭遇了可怕的暴风雨
As rain lashed the decks 暴雨抽打着甲板
and gale force winds tore through the rigging, 阵阵狂风撕裂了缆绳
the ship began to take on water. 船开始进水
The captain had no choice but to run his ship aground and wait for help. 船长没别的办法 只能把船开到搁浅处等待救援
But help never arrived,and the natives were hostile. 但是援助从未到来 并且当地人很不友善
After eight long months, and with his crew facing certain starvation, 八个月后 他的船员很必然地面临到了饥饿
the captain came up with an ingenious plan. 船长提出了一个巧妙的计划
He summoned the local chief and told him his God was angry. 他召集当地的酋长 告诉他 他的神很是饥饿
So angry, in fact,that if they didn't bring supplies within three days, 如此饥饿 如果他们不在三天内带食物来
God would swallow the moon. 神就要吞掉月亮
And sure enough,as the moon rose on the third night,it had already begun to disappear. 果然 第三个晚上月亮升起时 已经开始消失了
Terrified, the locals ran from all directions towards the ship, 当地人感到害怕了 从四面八方跑向这条船
laden with provisions. 满载着食物
The year was 1504, and the captain? 这一年是1504年 那个船长是
Christopher Columbus. 克里斯多弗 哥伦布
And the reason he was apparently able to command the heavens 他酷似能控制上帝 其真正原因是
was because he had something like this. 他有一些像这样的东西
It's a set of lunar tables. 这是一套月蚀表
And each one of these numbers represents a lunar eclipse. 这些数字的每一个代表了一次月蚀
Today's date is June 15th, and it says that in about five hours' time 今天是7月15日 上面写着大约5小时后
the same thing is going to happen to the moon here in Cyprus. 同样的事情将会发生在这儿 在塞浦路斯
During a lunar eclipse, the earth passes between the sun and the moon, 在月蚀期间 地球在太阳和月亮之间穿过
casting its shadow across the lunar surface. 把阴影投在了月球的表面
And there it goes. 就是这样的
The moon has been swallowed up by the shadow of the Earth. 月亮被地球的阴影吞噬掉了
But the amazing thing is actually the moon doesn't completely disappear, cos... 但令人吃惊的是月亮实际上并为完全消失 因为
there's a kind of... red, ghostly moon up there. 一个有点儿红的月亮 幽灵般的悬在那里
And that's because the light from the sun is being refracted around the Earth. 那是因为来自太阳的光在地球周围被折射
Really quite spooky. 真是很令人毛骨悚然的
I can imagine how terrified the islanders would have been when they saw that 500 years ago. 我能想象500年前岛民们看到这一景象时 他们是多么的害怕
And the only explanation for them would have been that the gods really were angry with them. 对他们而言唯一的解释是 神真的对他们很生气
We now know that the movement of the planets is incredibly predictable. 我们现在知道行星的运动是高度可预测的
By understanding the Code,we can model their orbits far back into the past. 靠理解这一秘密 我们能模拟它们的轨道回到过去
And see thousands of years into the future. 也能看到数千年后的未来
It's thanks to the Code that we're no longer frightened by an eclipse. 多亏了密码 我们不再害怕月蚀
In fact, the Code is such a powerful thing 事实上 密码是如此地充满力量
that I'm even prepared to entrust my life to it. 以至于我甚至准备将我的生命交付于它
This strange contraption is five and a half metres high. 这个奇妙的装置有5.5米高
Using the force of gravity, 利用重力
a 30-kilogram ball will hurtle down the ramp and fire off the end. 一个30公斤的球将冲下斜架 从末端射出
And when it does, I will be sitting directly in its path. 当它这样运行时 我将坐在它的路径上
If I get my sums wrong,I'll be killed outright. 如果我把我的一列数字弄错 我会立即死掉
To calculate how far the ball's going to go, 为了计算出球会走多远
I need some key measurements about the ramp. 我需要对斜架进行关键性的测量
Little h is 0.98 metres. 高是0.98米
The angle is 49.1 degree. 角度是49.1度
So gravity, I know, on the Earth... 我知道 在地球上 重力
is 9.8 metres per second squared. 是9.8米每二次方秒
Interestingly, you don't have to know the weight of the ball,the mass of the ball. 有趣的是 你不必知道球的重量和质量
That's not relevant to how far the thing's going to go. 它们与球将要走多远没有任何关系
Two times gravity,times the height, 5.5, 2乘以重力 乘以高度5.5
multiplied by the speed,divided by 49.1, 乘以速度 除以49.1
take the cosine... 算出余弦
That will give me a distance of 9.95 metres. 距离为9.95米
But we've got air resistance,there's friction on the... the ramp as well. 但是我们有空气阻力 以及斜坡的摩擦力
What about the wind today? 9.16. 今天的风速怎么样？9.16
OK, so the predicted distance is going to be 5.6 metres. 那么预测距离将会是5.6米
That's where I think the ball is going to land. 那就是我认为的球着地的地方
Which means if I set up my deckchair here, I should be able to watch the whole thing in complete safety. 那意味着 如果我在这儿支起我的帆布躺椅 就应该能在完全安全的状况下观看全部过程
OK, release the ball. 好的 放开球
And that is the power of the Code. 这就是密码的力量
We can do this again and again and again... 我们能一遍又一遍地做这件事
..and the numbers mean the ball is going to land in the same place each time. 这些数字意味着每一次球都会落在同一个地方
If everything in the world behaved according to equations that give definite answers, 如果世界上的一切事物都是按照能给出明确答案的方程式来运行的话
we'd be able to predict the future with absolute certainty. 我们就能够绝对确定地预测未来
But unfortunately things aren't quite that simple. 但是 不幸的是 事情并不是那么简单
The natural world often appears so complex 自然世界似乎常常是复杂的
it's hard to imagine we could write equations to describe it. 就像我们写出方程式来描述它是很困难的
Even though we might glimpse what we think are patterns, 即使我们能瞥见我们所认为的东西是些模式
they seem almost impossible to understand. 它们似乎几乎都是不可能被理解的
I've come to witness a mysterious phenomenon 我曾目睹过一个神秘的现象
that happens here in Denmark for a few short weeks every year. 它发生在丹麦每年的短短几周时间里
WINGS FLUTTER
BIRDS TWITTER
WINGS FLUTTER
First few appearing, I think. 我认为 先是少数几个出现
These are starlings, 这些是欧椋鸟
making their annual migration between southern Europe and Scandinavia. 每年在南欧和斯堪的纳维亚半岛之间迁徙
A single flock can contain a million birds or more. 只一群就含有一百万多只鸟
Their dance obscures the fading evening light, 它们轻快的飞跃遮掩了暗淡的夜晚灯光
giving the formation its eerie name - 人们给这种情形起了个怪异的名字
The Black Sun. 黑太阳
There's another massive group coming in. 又有一大群过来了
Oh! 噢
There are thousands of them up there. 那儿有数千只鸟
It's not really clear why they do this. 它们为什么这么做还不十分清楚
It's maybe like, kind of,safety in numbers. 可能是 数量大多少有些安全感
The whole shape looks quite intimidating. 整个形状看上去相当地吓人
It looks like one large, black beast, 它看起来像一只巨大的黑色怪兽
frightening off any predators 把捕食者都吓跑了
that might be looking for a bit of dinner before sunset. 它们正在日落前寻找晚餐
Look at that. 看
Ah. 啊
It's almost hypnotic. 几乎是被催眠了
It's amazing.There are so many of them, 真是令人惊奇 它们太多了
it's a wonder they don't smash into each other 这真是个奇迹 它们彼此之间并不撞击
and sort of knock some out of the sky. But they don't seem to. 多少会往空中撞 但是那种情况似乎也很少
Incredible synchronisation. 难以置信的同步
Oh! 噢
You're never quite sure what it's going to do next. 你绝不会知道下一步它们要做什么
'It's an almost impossible achievement. 这几乎是一个不可能实现的
'How can each bird predict the movements of thousands of others?' 每只鸟是如何预测其他数以千计的鸟的运动呢
That's extraordinary? 真是惊人
As strange as it seems, by reducing each starling to numbers, 虽然看起来很奇怪 但是通过减少数量到每一只欧椋鸟
we can model what's happening on a computer. 我们能在计算机上模拟出所发生的一切
We start with a flock of virtual starlings, 我们以一群虚拟的欧椋鸟开始
all flying at different speeds and in different directions. 所有的鸟都是以不同的速度在不同的方向飞行
And then we give them some simple rules. 然后我们设定一些简单的规则
The first is for each bird to fly at the same speed. 首先 每只鸟要以相同的速度飞行
The second rule is to stay close to your neighbours. 其次 彼此靠近飞行
And finally, if you see a predator nearby, get out of the way. 最后 如果在附近看到捕食者 要避开
Three simple rules are all it takes to create something 只要三个简单的规则就可以设计出来这种情形
that looks uncannily like the movement of a real flock of starlings. 而且看起来特别像一群真正的欧椋鸟在飞行
Oh, here they come. 噢 它们飞过来了
Oh! 噢
HE LAUGHS
In fact, a recent study has shown 事实上 最近的研究表明
that even in a flock of hundreds of thousands of birds, 即使是在一群数十万计的欧椋鸟中
each starling only has to keep track of its seven nearest neighbours. 每只欧椋鸟只需与离它最近的7只鸟保持联系
And then...they've all gone. 然后 它们都飞走了
The sky's clear again. 天空又清晰了
Who'd have thought that something so extraordinarily complex 谁会想到如此异常复杂的事情
as a constantly shifting flock of thousands of birds in flight 像一群飞行中的不断转变方向的数以千计的鸟
can have at its heart such a simple and elegant Code? 其核心是拥有了这样一个简单精确的密码？
WOMAN LAUGHS
CHILD LAUGHS
BABY CRIES
It seems inconceivable that human beings 似乎是不可思议的 人类
could ever be reduced to a mathematical model like starlings. 曾沦为像欧椋鸟一样的数学模型
CLOCK TICKS
But Iain Couzin studies how animals behave in groups, 但是Iain Couzin研究动物们在群体中如何行动
and his research has revealed some surprising parallels. 他的研究已经揭示了一些惊人的相似之处
How can you possibly begin to understand something like this huge mass of people? 你可能会怎样开始了解类似一大群人这样的事儿呢？
Even when you look at the crowd for a few seconds, 实际上 你看上这群人几秒钟
you realise there's so many complicated factors at play. 你就会意识到有如此多的复杂因素在上演
I started my research looking at simple organisms, 我从观察简单的生物体开始了我的研究
organisms like ant swarms,schooling fish. 像蚁群 鱼群这样的生物体
And remarkably, our insights from studying those systems 值得注意的是 研究那些系统而来的洞察力
led to new insights in studying human crowds. 导致了在研究人群方面的新的洞察力
But people are much more complicated than a...a fish or an ant. 但是 人要比鱼和蚂蚁更为复杂
Exactly, but that's almost the beauty of this, 确切的说 这就是美之所在
is we're thinking about more interesting things 我们正在思考更为有趣的东西
when we're walking through crowds than, "How do I avoid that person and that obstacle?" 当我们步行穿过人群时 我如何避开那个人 那个障碍物呢？
You know, we're thinking about what we're going to cook for dinner or what our friends are doing. 你知道 我们正在考虑晚饭做什么 或者我们的朋友正在做什么
And so, in actual fact,we're almost on auto-pilot, 事实上 我们几乎是自动在试用
and we're actually using very simple rules of interaction 我们一直使用着非常简单的交互作用的规则
just like the schooling fish and the swarming ants. 就像鱼群和蚁群
So can we learn things from the ants? 那么我们可以向蚂蚁学习吗？
We could learn an huge amount from the ants. 我们从蚂蚁身上学习很多
Ants don't suffer from problems such as congestion. 蚂蚁不会遭遇诸如交通堵塞的问题
Because they're not selfish.And I'm afraid to say we are. 因为它们不自私 我恐怕得说我们自私了
We want to minimise our own travel time, 我们想要减少我们自己的旅行时间
but we don't necessarily care whether we do so at the expense of other individuals. 但是我们必定不在乎我们这样做是否对别人造成了损害
Of all the animals Iain has studied, 从Iain研究的所有动物当中
human beings are, in some ways,the most predictable. 在某些方面 人类是最可预测的
We walk at an optimum speed of 1.3 metres per second, 我们以每秒1.3米的适应速度步行
and prefer to walk in straight lines to get to our destination. 更喜欢径直走到目的地
What happens is you will naturally fall 接下来的事情是 你将很自然地汇入
into the slipstream of someone moving in the same direction as you. 和你同方向移动的人流中
And so without you even knowing it,you're forming a lane. 你甚至都不知道 你们已形成了一个车道
Similarly, pedestrians moving in the other direction will also form lanes, 同样 另一个方向来的行人也将形成车道
very much like the ants do. 就像蚂蚁们所做的那样
These lanes help us to avoid collisions. 这些车道帮助我们避开碰撞
However, in a large open space, 然而 在一个大的开放空间
like the concourse at Grand Central Station, 像纽约曼哈顿中央火车站的广场
the lanes inevitably cross each other, 车道不可避免的彼此交叉
which could lead to congestion. 这就会导致交通堵塞
But when you put an obstacle - like this information desk - 但是 当你把一个障碍物 - 像这个服务台
in the middle of the crowd,rather than getting in the way, 放在人群的中间 而不是挡着路
it acts like a roundabout 就像一个街心转盘
and increases the flow through the station by as much as 13%. 这样通过火车站的流量增加了13%
These rules are so effective at predicting what we'll do, 这些规则在预测我们将要做什么方面非常有效
they can even be used to simulate crowds of people. 它们甚至能用来模仿人群
Each individual is actually described by a set of numbers 实际上 每个人都可以用一组数字来描述
as they move through an environment. 当它们走过一个环境的时候
Exactly. We're capturing the average type of behaviour of pedestrians. 确切的说 我们在撷取一般类型的行人行为
We're capturing these simple and local rules that people use within crowds 我们撷取人群所使用的简单的 局部的规则
to then make predictions as to how the whole crowd 然后预测整个人群如何
is going to flow through different environments. 走过不同的环境
We can use this underlying Code of the crowd 我们能用人群的潜在密码
to design buildings that are more efficient and safer. 来设计更有效 更安全的建筑物
Simulations like these are able to accurately predict 像这样的一些模拟物能准确地预测
how quickly a building can be evacuated, 人们从一个大楼里撤离需要多长时间
even before it has been built. 甚至是在这个大楼被建之前
As a crowd,people are incredibly predictable. 作为一群人 人居然是可以预测的
There are simple rules that we follow without being aware of it. 有一些在我们没有意识到时就已遵循的简单规则
But most of the time,we don't live on autopilot. 但是 大部分时间里我们并不是靠自动试用生活
And when the crowd disperses, so too do the rules of group behaviour. 当人群分散开来的时候 群体行为的规则也分散开来
SIREN BLARES
As individuals with our own free will, we're much harder to predict. 作为有着自由意志的个体 我们更难预测
Or so we think. 或许是我们这么想的
Before we gets started,I would like to mention the rules. 在我们开始之前 我想提提这些规则
They are very simple. 它们是非常简单的
There are three throws and there are only three throws. 出手三次 只出手三次
We use a three-prime shoot,which means you go one, two, three 我们先准备出手三次 只准备三下
and you release your throw on four. 第四次你要显示出你所出的
A throw of rock is a closed fist. 握紧的拳头是石头
You can throw it any way you want as long as it is a closed fist. 只要是握紧的拳头 怎样出都行
Your paper must be horizontal. 你出 布 时 手必须是水平的
Your scissors must be vertical. 你出 剪刀 时 手必须是垂直的
That will be foul. 那样是犯规的
The game of rock, paper, scissors is known all over the world. 全世界的人都知道石头 剪子 布的游戏
And some people take it very seriously. 有些人把这个看得很严重
For those of you who don't know,and there should be very few, 你们中不知道这个游戏的 应该很少
the throw of paper covers the throw of rock. 布 赢 石头
The throw of scissors cuts the throw of paper, 剪刀 赢 布
and the throw of rock crushes the throw of scissors. 石头 赢 剪刀
In Philadelphia,the Rock, Paper, Scissors League 在费城 石头 剪子 布联赛
competes four times a week. 一周比赛四次
The people in this room are fighting 这个房间的人们正在为
to go to the world championship in Las Vegas 参加拉斯维加斯的世界杯进行比赛
and the chance to win 10,000. 有机会赢得10,000美元
Sweetji in the lead.Rock versus scissors for Sweetji. 石头 对 剪刀 Sweetji领先
You're on the verge of elimination,Drew Bag. Drew Bag 你现在处在淘汰赛的边缘
Third and final set,winner moves on. 第三盘 即最后一盘 赢者晋级
THE CROWD CHANTS AND CLAPS
Rock versus scissors. 石头 对 剪刀
And what a match,to take us down to the final four. 多么棒的游戏 带我们进入最终盘比赛
The intriguing thing about this game is that it should be impossible 这个游戏的有趣之处在于他应该是不可能
to predict what your opponent's going to do next. 预测你的对手下一步要出什么
In rock, paper, scissors,they're all pretty much equivalent. 石头 剪子 布 出现的几率是均等的
So each throw beats one and loses to another, 每出一次 都会击败一个 或输给另一个
so essentially it's a game of even odds. 所以 本质上 它是一个成败机会均等的游戏
A bit like a flip of a coin. 有点儿像抛硬币
But if the game is entirely random, 但是 如果这个游戏完全随机
every player would be evenly matched. 每个参赛者都是棋逢对手
And yet some people win time and time again. 然而 有些人一次又一次的赢
It is match point, Sweetji. Sweetji 到赛点了
B-Pac has no points here in round number two. B-Pac 在第二轮没得分
He will need two straight throws. 他需要直投两次
Can he get through number one? 他能投得第一名吗？
No. Sweetji! 不 Sweetji!
So now our final match of the night. 现在是今晚的最终盘比赛
Sweetji,you're going to play dOGulas. Sweetji 你要和 dOGulas决战
The more we play, the more we're influenced by our past throws. 我们玩的次数越多 受过去投出的影响越多
Begin. 开始
And that creates patterns that can be exploited to win the game. 这产生了用于赢得比赛的模式
Sweetji came fifth in the league last year, Sweetji在去年的联赛中得了第五名
and this season looks set to do even better. 这个赛季他看起来做的更好
dOGulas! dOGulas!
Rock crushes scissors. 石头 赢了 剪刀
Sweetji still has point... Sweetji得分
Rock crushes scissors! 石头 赢了 剪刀
SHE SCREAMS
Sweetji, Philadelphia Rock, Paper,Scissors City League Champion here at the Raven Lounge. Sweetji在乌鸦酒吧赢得了费城石头 剪子 布 联赛冠军
Congratulations. Thank you. 恭喜 谢谢
So that was five consecutive wins. 这是五连胜
What was the key to your success,do you think? I try to read people. 你认为什么是你成功的关键？我试着读懂人的内心
Yeah, you do, yeah? Or at least try to think what they're thinking. 是的 你做到了 不是吗？至少思考了他们在想什么
You're looking for their patterns then? Yeah, a little bit like... 然后 你寻找他们的模式？是的 有点儿像
Their patterns,and they'll be trying to learn mine and go against that. 他们的模式 他们也在试图获悉我的模式 然后加以对抗
Rock, paper, scissors reveals a fundamental truth 石头 剪子 布 揭示了一个关于人性的
about human nature. 基本真理
We are so addicted to patterns 我们如此沉迷于模式
that we let them seep into almost everything we do. 以致于我们让它们渗入到我们所做的每一件事上
And these patterns are the key 这些模式是
to predicting many aspects of our behaviour. 预测我们行为许多方面的关键
Even the darkest parts of our nature. 甚至我们本性中最黑暗的部分
SCREAMS
Deceased. Female, five foot two. 死者 女 身高五英尺二英寸
Complexion, dark. Eyes, brown.Hair, brown. 肤色黝黑 眼睛棕色 头发棕色
When you see this much activity in such a small geographic area 当你在一个小的地理区域内 看到这么多的行动
in such a tight time frame, 在这样一个紧迫的时间框架里
that's a warning bell that something's going on, 这是有事情要发生的警钟
we have a predator operating. 我们掌握了杀手的操作过程
Kim Rossmo has 20 years' experience as a Detective Inspector. Kim Rossmo有着20年做探长的经验
He specialises in hunting down serial killers. 他专门研究猎杀 连环杀手
The victim's body was found here in the corner 受害人的尸体在拐角处被一名警官发现
by a police officer that came in shortly after the crime had occurred. 他在犯罪发生后即刻赶来的
The prime crime scene would be... 主要的犯罪现场是...
But Rossmo is no ordinary cop, 但是Rossmo不是普通的警察
because he's got a PhD 因为他是数学博士
and uses mathematics to understand the patterns criminals leave behind. 运用数学理解罪犯们留下的那些模式
There's a logic in how the offender hunted for the victim 有一个逻辑 在罪犯如何寻找受害者
and the location where he committed the crime. 以及他犯罪的地点方面
If we can decode that and if we can understand that pattern, 如果我们能破译这个逻辑和理解这个模式
we can use that information to help us focus a criminal investigation. 我们就能利用这些信息帮助我们集中进行犯罪调查
The reason it's so hard to catch serial killers is because there's often no link to their crimes. 抓捕连环杀手如此之难的原因是 他们和他们的罪行经常毫无联系
They kill random strangers 他们随意杀害陌生人
in locations they have no obvious connection to. 在与他们没有明显联系的地点
It's very common in the investigation of a serial murder case 在连环杀手案件的调查上是很普遍的
to have hundreds, thousands,even tens of thousands of suspects. 有数百 甚至数千连环杀手案件
It's a needle-in-a-haystack problem. 这犹如大海捞针
Where do you start? 你从哪儿开始啊？
In 1888, the most notorious serial killer of all, Jack the Ripper, 在1888年 最声名狼藉的连环杀手 开膛手杰克
killed five women in London's East End. 在伦敦东区杀死了五名妇女
Since then, countless people have tried to solve the mystery of the Ripper's identity. 从那时起 无数人试图揭开开膛手杰克真实身份的谜团
But Rossmo thinks he could have tracked him down 但是Rossmo认为他能追查他的下落
without seeing a scrap of evidence. 没有见到一丁点儿证据
Because he's worked out where Jack the Ripper most likely lived. 因为他已经确定出开膛手杰克最可能居住在哪里
Based only on the location of the crimes. 仅仅基于犯罪地点
Flower and Dean Street should have been the epicentre of their search. 花街和会长街应该是搜索的中心地带
And all he used to do it is an equation. 他过去常常做的事情是列方程式
Inherently, we're all lazy, 我们天生都很懒惰
and criminals just as much as anyone else. 罪犯在这点上和其他人是一样的
They want to accomplish their goals close to home rather than further away, 他们想要在他们家的附近达成目的 而不是离家很远
because it involves too much effort,too much time, too much travel. 因为这需要太多的精力 太多的时间 走太远的路
The first half of Rossmo's equation Rossmo的方程式的前一部分
models what's known as the least-effort principle. 按照花费最少精力的原则设计
It means that the crime locations 这意味着犯罪地点
are statistically more likely the nearer they are to where the offender lives. 在统计上更可能靠近罪犯所居住的地方
If you have a choice of going to the corner store for a loaf of bread 如果你可以选择是去拐角的商店买块儿面包
or one that's seven miles down the road, you'll pick the corner store. 还是去7英里远的地方去买 你会选拐角的商店
It seems a bit gruesome to apply the same thing to a serial killer 同样的事情应用到连环杀手身上 似乎有点儿触目惊心
as to going and buying a loaf of bread or milk. 说到去买块儿面包 或是牛奶
Well, actually, if we can get over the horrible nature of these crimes 事实上 如果我们复原这些罪犯的可怕天性
and recognise that these are human beings like the rest of us, 就会认识到 他们是和我们一样的人类
we can,because we understand ourselves, 我们或许 因为我们了解我们自己
maybe bet some understanding of these individuals. 可以打赌我们了解这些罪犯
The second half of the equation 方程式的后一部分
describes something called the buffer zone. 描述的是所谓缓冲区的一些事儿
Criminals avoid committing crimes too close to home, 罪犯避免在离家太近的地方实施犯罪
for fear of drawing attention to themselves. 害怕引人注意
It's the interaction of these two behaviours that allows Rossmo 正是这两种行为的相互作用 才允许Rossmo
to calculate the most probable location of the criminal. 计算出最为可能的犯罪现场
These individuals have to not only obtain their target - 这些罪犯不仅必须获得他们的目标
or capture a victim - 或是捕获一个受害者
but avoid apprehension by the police and identification by witnesses. 并且避免被警察逮捕 被目击证人认出
The technique, known as geographic profiling, 这个被称为“地理画像”的技巧
is now used by police all over the world. 现在被全世界的警察使用
Police are examining the possibility that a small explosion 警察正在检查这样一种可能性
near a branch of Barclays Bank in West London 伦敦西区巴莱克银行附近的一个小爆炸
was the work of an extortionist. 是勒索者的杰作
Police believe the demand 警察认为这个需要
came from the blackmailer known as Mardi Gra. 来自于狂欢节的勒索者
In the late '90s, Rossmo was called in by Scotland Yard 在90年带末 Rossmo被苏格兰场（伦敦警察局）叫去
to help catch the notorious Mardi Gra bomber, 帮助抓捕臭名昭著的狂欢节投弹手
who for three years waged a campaign of terror 三年来他一直从事着恐怖活动
against banks and supermarkets. 针对银行和超市
A 17-year-old man is recovering in hospital after being injured 一个17岁的男孩正在医院恢复健康
in an explosion at a Sainsbury's store in South London. 他在伦敦南部森宝利超市爆炸案中受伤
'Police are advising the public to be vigilant. 警察建议民众要警惕
'In truth, they can only wait to see what Mardi Gra does next.' 事实上 警方能做的也只有等Mardi Gra再次作案
How many bombs did he let off during that time? 在那段时间他放置了多少炸弹
Total, 36 known linked offences. 总共 确定与案件相关的有36颗
So you can see, they range from the north of Cambridge, 从图上看 炸弹安放地点从剑桥北部
all the way down to the strait of Dover. 一路向下直至丹佛海峡
But most of them are in Greater London. 但是大多数都在大伦敦地区
So this is a map showing the locations of all the bombs that were set off? 所以这是地图上显示所有的炸弹被引爆的位置吗？
That's right. There's certainly a concentration on London, 没错 当然重点在伦敦
but it looks pretty randomly scattered. 但是 看起来相当散乱
So now you're feeding those locations into the equation? 那么你现在要把这些地点信息代入方程式中吗？
Right. And what we have here now is the geo-profile. 是的 现在我们这里用的是“地理画像”
And that's going to show us the most likely location 它将展示给我们罪犯
where the offender lived. 最可能的住所
With dark orange being the most likely or the most probable. 深橙色那儿是最可能的地方
So we can see that the major focus is around the Chiswick area. 我们可以看到主要集中在奇西克区附近
In fact, in the report we prepared for Scotland Yard, 事实上 在我们提供给苏格兰场（伦敦警察局）的报告中
we even prioritised postcodes for that. 我们甚至按邮政编码排列好了顺序
And how successful was it in this case? 在这个案子上它成功了吗？
Well, let me show you the locations... 哦 让我给你看看这些地方...
of the two brothers,Edgar and Ronald Pearce. Edgar 和 Ronald Pearce两兄弟的
Right, that is really in the hot zone, isn't it? Yes. 不错 真是在热点地区 不是吗？是的
Edgar's home is in the top 0.8% Edgar的家排名前0.8%
of the area of the crimes in Greater London. 在大伦敦区犯罪区域
So less than 1%.That's extraordinary. 少于1% 这是不同寻常的
Edgar Pearce had demanded 10,000 a day from Barclays. Edgar Pearce一天需要在巴莱克银行提取10,000英镑
And when he and his brother tried to collect it from a cash point in Chiswick, 当他和他弟弟试图在奇西克超市的自动提款机提钱的时候
the police were waiting. 警察等在了那里
Two bothers in their 60s were remanded in custody by magistrates 两兄弟在他们60岁的时候由地方法官监护还押后审
in connection with the so-called Mardi Gra bombings. 与所谓的狂欢节爆炸案有关
Ronald and Edgar Pearce,both from Chiswick in West London, Ronald 和 Edgar Pearce都来自伦敦奇西克
each face three conspiracy charges. 每个人都面临着三个共谋的指控
Based on the apparently random location of 36 bombs, 基于36个貌似随机放置炸弹的地点
Rossmo's geographic profile narrowed the location of the Mardi Gra bomber Rossmo的“地理画像”缩小了狂欢节投弹手的位置
from 300 square miles to a postcode in Chiswick. 从300平方英里的范围缩小到奇西克区的一个邮编地址
Although his bother, Ronald,was acquitted, 尽管哥哥Ronald无罪释放
Edgar Pearce pleaded guilty and was jailed for 21 years. 但Edgar Pearce认罪 入狱21年
So do you think the bomber was aware that he was creating these patterns? 那么你认为投弹手会意识到他正创造着这些模式吗？
No, he wasn't.But it's very difficult for humans 不 他不会 但是 对人类而言
to engage in completely random behaviour. 从事完全随机的行为是非常困难的
Very few of us are aware of the patterns we leave behind. 我们当中很少有人会意识到我们留下的模式
WOMAN LAUGHS
From the way we move in a crowd... 当我们在人群中走动的方式...
..to the choices we make in a game... 到我们在游戏中作选择
Paper covers rock! 布 赢 石头
The victim's body was found here... 受害者的尸体在这里被发现
..or even how we commit murder. 甚至我们如何指定凶杀
In reality,these crimes are not random... 实际上 这些罪行不是随机的
None of it is random. 没有一个是随机的
It's all part of the Code. 这都是密码在起作用
There are always tell-tale patterns. 总有模式显示
And if we're able to decode them, 如果我们能破译密码
we can use those patterns to model our behaviour. 我们就能用这些模式模拟我们的行为
And this leads to the intriguing possibility 这会导出一个有趣的可能性
that if we can reduce human beings to numbers, we might be able to predict our future in the same way 即 如果我们能减少人数 我们就能以同样的方式预测我们的未来
as we can predict the movement of the planets or the trajectory of a ball. 像我们预测行星的运动和球的轨迹一样
But the course of our lives never seems to run entirely smoothly, 但我们生命的进程似乎从未完全顺序地进行
and the future rarely turns out exactly as we'd planned. 并且未来很少精确地按照我们设计的那样进行
I may have a good idea what I'm going to be doing tomorrow,or even next week, 我可能想知道明天将要做什么 甚至下周将要做什么
but as the weeks turn into months and months to years, our future becomes less certain. 但是 随着周变成了月 月变成了年 我们的未来变得更为不确定
Every decision we make,every situation we encounter, 我们所做的每个决定 我们所面临的每种情况
every person we meet, sends our life down a different path. 我们所遇见的每个人 将我们的生活引入不同的道路
As you watch each stick floating off downstream, there's no sure way of predicting their fate. 当你看到每个树枝顺流而下时 并不能确切地预测出它们的命运
I might be able to hazard a guess where a stick will be in two minutes. 我可以大胆猜一下 一个树枝在两分钟后会在哪里
But what about two hours? Two days? 但是两小时后呢？ 两天后呢？
'..Turn into years, our future becomes far less certain.' 转成年 我们的未来变得更难确定
Life sometimes seems so unpredictable that we think of it as being random. 有时生活是如此地难以预测 以致于我们认为它就是随机的
But in fact it isn't random at all. 但是 事实上它根本不是随机的
Simply a sequence of cause and effect. 只不过是一连串的因果关系
A freak accident. 一宗罕见的意外
I'm so sorry. 很遗憾
A slight delay. 一次稍微的耽搁
A missed bus. 一辆错过的汽车
A broken promise. 一个背弃的诺言
There are millions of factors that intervene to affect our journey through life, 有数百万的因素介入并影响我们的人生旅程
and the tiniest shift in any one of these can completely change its future course. 任何一个因素的最微小的变化都能完全地改变它未来的进程
The white one's caught in a dam,but the red one's fast. 白色那根在大坝那儿被绊住了 红色那根快一些
I think this'd be a good finishing line. 我认为这会是一个很好的终点线
And here comes the white.It's way ahead of the red. 白色的过来了 它在红色的那根前面
And white's the winner. 最后 白的那根赢了
Right, let's give it another go. 不错 让我们再做次实验
The truth is,our lives are controlled by the strangest code of all... 事实是 我们的生命是有所有混乱的密码中
the code of chaos. 最奇特的密码控制的
Our lives aren't random,they're chaotic, 我们的生命不是随机的 是混乱的
a tangled web of cause and effect in which insignificant moments 是错综复杂的因果网 在那里 无关紧要的片刻
can escalate into events that change our lives forever. 能激化为永远改变我们生命的大事件
Any difference, no matter how small, can have a huge effect on the outcome. 任何分歧 无论多小 都能对结局造成最大的影响
It's this incredible sensitivity to even the slightest change 正是对微小的改变的难以置信的敏感
which is one of the defining features of chaos. 才是混乱的本质特征之一
Because chaotic systems appear so random, it's often difficult to see a pattern. 因为混乱系统似乎是随机的 经常很难看到一个模式
And that has led us to sometimes misinterpret our world in a spectacular manner. 这有时导致我们以惊人的方式误解我们的世界
These are lemmings. 这些是旅鼠。
We all know they're stupid,reckless, and suicidal. 我们都知道它们是愚蠢、鲁莽和自杀。
The very word "lemming"has come to mean as much. “旅鼠”一词的含义也是如此。
The trouble is, though, it just isn't true. 问题是，这并不是真的。
Until recently, the legend of lemmings' suicidal behavior 直到最近，旅鼠自杀行为的传说
was the accepted explanation why one year, the Arctic 最公认的解释是为什么这一年在北极
could be overrun with them, and it （旅鼠）它们突然爆发（式出现），
was completely empty the next. 在别的年份完全消失不见！
What no one knew at the time was that the incredible fluctuation 当时没人知道的是令人难以置信的波动!
in lemming numbers has nothing to do with mass suicide. 旅鼠数量巨大，除了自杀什么也不能做了！
It's all because of chaos. 都是因为混乱！
And there's a simple equation at its heart. 并且它的核心是一个简单的方程式。
So for example, if I want to know how many lemmings they'll 例如，如果我想知道（明年）会有多少只旅鼠
be next year, what I need to do is 我所需要做的是：
to take this year's population P and multiply 用今年的（旅鼠）总数乘以
that by the growth rate R. But not all lemmings will survive. 增长率R。当然也不是所有的旅鼠都会存活下来！ （生老病死）
So there's a little bit of the equation, 因此方程式中有一些位（修正）
which tells me how many lemmings will die during the year. 告诉我一年中有多少旅鼠死亡。
So that's R times P times P.So we can rewrite this equation 那就是 R 乘以 P 乘以 P， 这样我们就可以重写这个方程式 R * P * P
as the growth rate R times P times 1 minus P. 也就是：增长率R 乘以 P 乘以 1-P。 R * P * (1-P)
Now, this equation isn't specific to lemmings, 现在 这个方程式不是特定给旅鼠的
it actually applies to any animal population. 它实际上适用于任何动物种群
And the interesting part of the equation is this number R, the growth rate. 这个方程式的有趣之处是数字R 增长率
Because when we choose different values for R, 因为 我们选择不同的R值
The growth rate determines how quickly a population expands. 增长率决定种群膨胀的速度
For most species of mammal, this is usually below 2. 对大多数哺乳动物而言 它通常是低于2的
With a growth rate in this range,the equation predicts 用这个值域的增长率 这个方程式预测了
But it turns out lemmings are one of the fastest-reproducing mammals on the planet. 但是 这证明了旅鼠是这个行星上繁殖最快的哺乳动物之一
Let's take R equals 3.1. 让我们设定R等于3.1
The lemmings don't stabilise now, but ping-pong between two different values. 现在的旅鼠数量并没有稳定下来 而是在两个不同的增长值之间来回波动
So the population is high, then low, and back to high again, low again. 种群数量升上去 然后降下来 又升上去 又降下来
But when the growth rate reaches a value just over 3.57 但是当增长率达到刚好超过3.57这个值时
then something incredibly unexpected happens. 令人难以置信的意外事件发生了
Rather than levelling off at a fixed number, 它们种群的数量不是在一个固定值上趋于平稳
or fluctuating between two values,their population erupts into chaos. 也不是在两个值之间波动 而是演变成了混乱
A plague of almost biblical proportions one year can plummet to near extinction the next. 若一年发生了好像圣经所提到的那种程度的瘟疫 那么下一年旅鼠数目会大幅下降 几近灭绝
It's almost impossible to predict how many lemmings you're going to have. 预测出将会有多少旅鼠 几乎是不可能的
In fact, there doesn't seem to be any pattern to this at all. 事实上 对此几乎根本没有任何模式
And of course, this is exactly what's seen in reality. 当然 这恰恰是实际上所看到的
Unpredictable boom-and-bust lemming populations. 无法预知的繁荣与萧条的旅鼠数量
Lemmings are one of the few creatures on Earth that breed so quickly 旅鼠是地球上繁殖最快的少数生物之一
their growth rate can sometimes exceed this tipping point. 它们的增长率有时能超过临界点
It's such an odd phenomenon that mass suicide seems like a plausible answer. 集体自杀似乎貌似是一个合理的答案 其实这样解释是一个奇怪的现象
But the real explanation comes from the Code. 真正的解释来自于密码
From this equation. 来自于这个方程式
The problem is we can never know exactly how many lemmings are born or how many die. 问题是 我们从未确切地了解旅鼠出生多少 死亡多少
we get a very different behaviour for the population growth. 就会得到不同的种群增长结果
And this is true of all equations that model chaos. 这是真正方程式混乱的模型
Although they can explain how something happens, 虽然它们能解释 事情是如何发生的
that a population will rise until it stabilises at a fixed value. 种群数量将上升到一个固定值后会稳定下来
they're almost useless at predicting the future. 但是 它们在预测未来方面是毫无用处的
I can use an equation to calculate where this ball will land, 我能用方程式计算出这个球在哪里落地
because even if I'm slightly out in any of my measurements, 因为 即使我稍微偏离了测量值
it will only make a small difference to the final result. 也只会对最终的结果产生很小的变化 527 00:39:29,460 --> 00:39:34,780 The ball will be released from the ramp at 49.1 degrees. 球从坡度为49.1度的坡道释放
But if this ball behaved according to the laws of chaos, 但是 如果球按混乱的法则运行
the tiniest shift in the ball's position 球的位置的最小变化
or the angle of release could dramatically alter its trajectory. 或是释放角度的变化 都能明显地改变它的轨迹 531 00:39:48,020 --> 00:39:51,260 I'd have no idea whether it would just simply fall harmlessly 我不知道是否它仅仅是毫无损害地
off the end of the ramp. 从坡度的末端落下
Or be sent into orbit. 或是被送入轨道
I'd have no idea where to put my deckchair. 我不知道把我的帆布躺椅放在哪里
It turns out that much of the world is chaotic, 事实证明 世界上的很多情况都是混乱的
making it almost impossible to predict. 预测几乎是不可能的
But that doesn't stop us trying. 但是这阻止不了我们尝试
Knowing whether the sun is going to shine 确认太阳是否照耀
or the heavens are going to open,is a British obsession. 天空是否晴朗 是英国人的困惑
But trying to plan our lives around the vagaries of the weather 但是试图在变化莫测的天气里计划我们的生活
seems almost futile. 似乎是徒劳的
And just the smallest difference in the growth rate R, produces a totally different answer. 恰恰增长率R最小的变化 都会得出完全不同的答案
Even though we have precise equations that can describe how clashing air masses interact 即使我们有精确的方程式可以描述气团碰撞如何相互作用
to create clouds,wind and rainfall, 形成云 风 雨
it doesn't really help us very much with our predictions. 但是 这对我们预测帮助不大
THUNDER CRASHES
That's because we can never know the exact speed of every air particle. 那是因为我们从不知道每个空气粒子准确的运动速度
The precise temperature at every point in space, 空间每一点的精确温度
or the pressure across the whole planet. 或是整个行星的压力
And just a small variation in any one of these 任何因素的微小变化
can produce a vastly different forecast. 都能产生出截然不同的预测
This is a map of how the weather looks right now. 这是现在天气预报的地图
The blue lines represent cold fronts and the red lines represent warm fronts. 蓝线代表冷气流 红线代表暖气流
In order to make a prediction 为了做预测
what we do is to take the mathematical equations for the weather 我们所要做的是把天气代入数学方程式
and create a model. 并且建立一个模型
Now the trouble is, I can't know the precise atmospheric conditions, 现在的问题是 我不知道精确的大气条件
so I take as much data as possible. 所以我尽可能多地代入数据
Then I make small variations in the data and run the model again 然后我在数据上做一些小变动并再次运行这个模型
and again and again and what I get is different predictions according to those slight variations. 一次有一次 根据这些微小的改变 我所得到的是不同的预测
So for the weather tomorrow,the predictions are petty similar. 所以 对于明天的天气而言 预测是类似的
We've got a lot of blue lines together predicting a cold front. 许多蓝线聚在一起 预示冷气流
A lot of red lines together predicting a warm front. 许多红线聚在一起 预示暖气流
But look what happens when I look a little bit further ahead. 我往后看一看 看看会发生什么
So two days, three days ahead... 两天后 三天后...
so you can see these different predictions are beginning to spread out. 您能看见这些不同的预测显示出来
You can still see some sort of pattern in the weather 你仍能看到某种天气模式
but if I move a week ahead... 如果我换做一周后...
..and I couldn't hazard a guess as to what the weather's going to be. 我不能冒昧猜测天气将会怎样
There are red and blue lines all over the place. 到处都有红 蓝线
One prediction says it's going to be hot, the other says cold, 一个预示着天会变热 另一个预示着天会变冷
and if I go ten days ahead, 如果我换做十天后
it just looks like a scrambled mess of spaghetti. 它看起来像杂乱的意大利面条
There's absolutely no way to make any prediction that far in advance. 绝对没有办法提前那么多天做预测了
And that's why beyond just a few days, 这就是仅在短短的几天
the weather forecast can be so spectacularly wrong. 天气预报就出现明显错误的原因
Once we understand that the atmosphere is chaotic, 一旦我们知道空气是混乱的
we can appreciate that the smallest change in the initial conditions 我们就能理解 初始条件最微小的改变
can dramatically alter what will happen. 能明显的改变将要发生的事情
The movement of just one molecule of air can be magnified over time 一个空气粒子的运动随着时间的推移 能被加剧
to have a huge effect on the weather as a whole. 最终在总体上对天气产生巨大的影响
We refer to this phenomenon as the "butterfly effect". 我们把这一现象称之为“蝴蝶现象”
The idea that something as small as the flap of a butterfly's wings 意思是像蝴蝶煽动翅膀那么小的变化
might create changes in the atmosphere 都能在空气中产生变化
that could ultimately lead to a tornado on the other side of the world. 以至最终导致世界另一边的龙卷风
CRASHING THUNDER
As a crowd, the patterns we make are incredibly predictable. 作为一群人 我们形成的模式是高度可预测的
Even as individuals our actions are controlled by the Code. 甚至作为个体 我们的行动也是由密码控制着
And by untangling chaotic systems like the weather, 靠清理像天气那样混乱的系统
we've uncovered evidence of the Code in what we once thought of 我们已经揭示了密码的证据 尽管我们曾今认为它是
as impossibly complex. 难以置信的复杂
When we look at things from a different angle, 当我们从不同的角度看事情的时候
surprising patterns emerge. 令人吃惊的模式出现了
Patterns that can reveal defining truths about ourselves and our future. 这些模式揭示了我们自己和我们未来的明确的真理
In 1906, an unfortunate cow laid down its life 在1906 一只不幸的牛死了
for a place in mathematical history. 在数学史上留下了一席之地
One. 1
Ten. 10
264.
417.
'The cow was the subject of a guess-the-weight competition at a village fare. 牛是村庄饭店里猜重量游戏的主角
'The lucky person who came closest 猜的最接近的幸运的人
'would win the slaughtered animal's meat.' 会赢得宰杀后的牛肉
1,020.
2,137.
'The amazing thing was nobody guessed correctly.' 令人吃惊的是没有人猜的正确
..570.
'And yet everybody got it right.' 然而每个人都试图猜对
4,510.
To show you how they did it, 为了展示给你他们是如何做的
I'm not going to use a cow, I'm going to use a jar of jelly beans. 我不用牛 而是用一罐糖豆来做实验
450?
800?
12,000.
7,000.
How many jellybeans do you think there are in this jar? 你认为这个罐子里有多少个糖豆？
Um, 嗯
50... 5万
80 thousand. 8万
80 thousand? 8万？
No, actually 50,000. 不对 实际上是5万
50,000. OK, yeah. 5万 是的 没错
It's incredibly difficult for anyone to guess how many jellybeans there are. 对任何人而言 猜准有多少个糖豆是非常困难的
I asked 160 people and most were way off the mark. 我问了160个人 大多数猜到都不着边际
Everything from 400 right up to 50,000 beans. 从400到5万
In fact only four people got anywhere near the correct answer of 4,510. 只有4个人猜到接近正确答案4510的数
Plus 1,500, plus 3,217, plus 83... . 加1500 加3217 加83...
If I add all the answers together and take the average, I get the combined guess of the entire group. 如果我把所有的答案加起来 做个平均 我得到了整个群体的组合猜测
Plus, 4,000, plus 5,000, 加4000 加5000
463,
Plus 853, plus 1,000, 加853 加1000
plus 5,000... 加5000
Which gives a grand total 得出总数
of 722,383.5. 是722,383.5
Somebody thought there was half a bean in there. 有人认为那里有半颗糖豆
Now there are 160 guesses made,so let's see how close they are collectively. 现在有160个猜测，让我们看看他们总体上是怎样地接近
Wow, that's extraordinary. 哇 真是神奇
You remember there were 4,510. 你记得有4510
The average guess to the nearest bean is 4,515. 猜测的平均值接近4515
I thought it would be close, but I didn't think it would be that close. 我认为它很接近 但我认为它不会那么近
That is ridiculous. 这是很荒谬的
Though we had guesses that were all over the place, up in 30,000s right down in the 400s, 尽管我们猜测的满天飞 上到3万 下到400
collectively we get something which is just 0.1% away 总体上 我们得到了仅是0.1%的误差
from the real number of beans in there. 距真实的糖豆数
So as individuals the guesses are just that, guesses. 所以作为个人的猜测就是那样 只要猜就是了
But when you take them collectively they become something else entirely. 但是 当我们总体上看待它们 它们又完全变成了其他的样子
5,000. 1,450. 9,200.
What tends to happen is that more or less as many people 常常发生的情况是 人们高估和低估
will underestimate the number of jellybeans as overestimate it. 糖豆的数目差不多
1,763... 6,000.
A few people will be way off the mark either way,but that doesn't matter. 有几个人会特别没谱 但是 这并不重要
Provided you ask enough people,the errors should cancel each other out. 假如你问足够多的人 误差将会彼此抵消
1,000. 1,275. 700?
The accuracy of the group is far greater than the individual. 群体的准确性远大于个体
We call it "the wisdom of the crowd". 我们称之为 集体的智慧
160 people is a powerful tool for working out how many jellybeans there are in the jar. 160人对于解出罐子里有多少糖豆是一个强大的工具
But imagine what you could do with a crowd of millions. 但是想像一下 数以百万计的人参与猜测会得到什么结果
That's exactly what they use here at Google. 这恰恰是他们在谷歌上使用的方式
With access to over two billion web searches a day, 随着一天接入20亿次的网络搜索
Google have found a way of tapping into the wisdom of the biggest crowd on Earth. 谷歌已经找到了深入地球上最大智慧群体的方法
And by doing so, 这样一来
they've been able to reveal the forces that control our lives, 它们已经显示出控制我们生活的巨大力量
and harness them to make predictions about us. 利用它们来预测我们
'Think of the things that people search for on a daily basis. 想想 人们每天搜索
'Think of the things that YOU search for on a daily basis.' 我们每天搜索
I searched for cities in Mexico and films in Hackney today. 我搜索墨西哥的城市和今天哈克尼区上映的电影
Lots of people may be searching for the similar... 许多人搜索类似的
a similar thing,movies in Hackney, for example. 像哈克尼区上映的电影等类似的事情
And if you look at that query over the past three years, 如果你要看过去三年里的计算机查询
um, what the pattern of searches for that term looks like. 嗯 搜索词语的模式看起来像什么
Google had a hunch they could use all our searches 谷歌预感到了利用我们的搜索
to make predictions about our lives. 可以预测我们的生活
They wanted to see if they could match the pattern of certain searches 他们想要知道是否它们能匹配某些搜索的模式
with events in the real world. 是世界上的真实事件
Google began by seeing if they could predict outbreaks of flu. 谷歌以了解他们是否能预测流感的爆发开始
So flu has a nice seasonal pattern 流感有适应的季节性模式
and because it has that pattern every year over many years, 因为它年复一年都有这种模式
we're able to...to take that trend 我们能 ...采取这一趋势
and say which search queries match that pattern. 说明哪个搜索查询匹配那个模式
So we built a database that included over 50 million different search terms. 于是我们建了一个数据库 含有5千多万不同搜索词语
50 million? 5千万？
Yes. Wow, yeah. 是的 哇 没错
We didn't only include things that may be related to flu. 我们不仅包含有和流感相关的内容
We included things like Britney Spears or... 还有像布兰妮等等众多内容
Everything people search for would be included. 人们想要搜索的每样东西都包含在内
When Google looked back over the past five years of data, 当谷歌回顾过去五年里的数据时
there were certain search terms whose popularity exactly matched 有某些搜索词语 它们的普及型恰好匹配了
the pattern of flu cases. 流感事件的模式
So people were searching for things like "symptoms" 人们搜索像 病症
or "medications" or "sore throat". 药物 喉咙痛
There are other things like complications. 也有类似并发症等其他事
So you're saying that the sort of number of search terms for flu-related things 你会说 搜索流感相关的事情的词语的次数
almost exactly mirrors the actual cases of flu that we see in the population? That's true. 几乎准确地反映了我们在人口中所看到的流感案例 对
It is an indicator of flu activity just based on lots of people searching for these terms. 它是流感活动的指示器 而这一活动仅基于许多人在搜索这些词组
We were amazed by this finding. 因为发现了这一点 我们倍感吃惊
As soon as they see this pattern of search terms 只要理解了搜索词语这种模式
Google can predict there will be an outbreak of flu. 谷歌就能预测流感将会爆发
Often before people had even gone to the doctor. 甚至经常是在人们去看病之前
This is the extraordinary power of the Code. 这是密码非凡的力量
But it's just the tip of the iceberg. 但这只是冰山的一角
The searches we make can be used to predict 我们搜索 目的是用来预测
where we'll go on holiday. 我们要到哪里去度假
What model of car we're going to buy. 我们要买哪款车
Or how we're going to vote, 或是我们要如何投票
often before we know ourselves. 且经常是在我们认识自己之前
It's even been possible to forecast the movement of the Stock Market 甚至预测股票市场的波动也是可能的
from the number of negative words used on Twitter. 通过微博上的否定词的数目
Analysing such vast amounts of data, doesn't just allow us to make predictions. 分析如此庞大的数据 不仅让我们做出了预测
It can also tell us something fundamental about ourselves. 也告诉了我们有关我们自己的基本情况
You look out at a city like this and it looks like, you know, some arbitrary jumbled mess. 你看看像这样一个城市 你知道 它看起来就像
Yet the city IS people. 然而 城市就是由人组成的
It's not the buildings and the streets. 而不是由建筑物和街道组成
They're the stage upon which the real actors 它们是舞台上真正的演员
are playing out the story of civilisation. 上演着文明的故事
Geoffrey West is a physicist who's spent his life trying to see meaningful patterns in the universe. Geoffrey West是一个物理学家 他毕生都在试图理解宇宙中富有意义的模式
And how he's turned his attention to the dynamics of human life in cities. 现在把注意力转移到城市中人类生活的动态上
So you can see there's all kinds of infrastructure here. 你能在这儿看到各种各样的基础设施
There's the obvious, the roads, the electrical lines, the sewer lines. 明显的有 道路 电线 下水道
They're an extraordinary network that is sustaining New York City. 它们是支撑纽约的特别网络
You know,coming at it as a physicist, 你知道 作为物理学家 他会研究这些
I had this hunch that there is an underlying code to all this. 我有个预感 所有这些事情的背后都有一个潜在的密码
West amassed data about cities all over the world. West积累了全世界很多城市的数据
And the patterns he found mean that for any given population size, 他发现的模式是 只要给他城市人口的数量
he can predict the amount of roads, 他就能预测出城市道路的数量
electrical wiring or office space that city has. 电线数量 或是 城市办公室的空间
But he also discovered something much more surprising. 但是 他也发现了一些更为奇怪的事情
One of the most interesting results we discovered was that, um... 我们发现的最为有趣的结果之一是 嗯...
Wages scale in a very systematic way 以系统化方式存在的工资规模
and the rule that came out was that if you doubled the size of the city, 得出的规则是 如果城市的规模扩大一倍
you get this marvellous 15% increase in the wages. 工资会不可思议地增长15%
If you live in a large city,you're going to earn more? Yes. 如果你居住在大城市 你要赚更多的钱 是的
So what, if there are two mathematicians 如果有两个数学家
in two different cities - one twice the size - doing the same job, 在两个不同的城市 一个城市是另一个的两倍大 两人做相同的工作
one will have a bigger income? On the average,that is what the data say. 有一个人会有更多的收入吗？按平均值 这就是数据所表达的
Was that a surprise to you to see that? A huge surprise. 那就是看到那一点带给你的吃惊吗？大大的吃惊
I thought there was something wrong with the data. 我认为数据有点儿问题
And then it was like, "Of course! That's why cities exist." 那就像在说 那就是城市存在的原因
Incredibly, it's not just people's salaries that increase. 难以置信的是 不仅是人们的工资增长
When a city doubles in size,every measure of social and economic activity 当城市的规模扩大一倍 每个人的社会活动和经济活动量
goes up by 15% per person. 上升了15%
That's 15% more restaurants to choose from. 那意味着要再有15%的饭店可供选择
15% more art galleries to visit.15% more shops to go to. 再有15%的艺术馆可供参观 再有15%的商店可供购物
In short, life gets 15% better. 总之 生活的方方面面要增加15%才会更好
You know it looks like it's a magic formula 你知道 这看起来像是一个神奇的公式
that we as social human beings have discovered... 作为社会人 我们发现...
..this 15% bonus, so to speak,is, I believe, the reason 这15%的额外工资 我认为
that people are attracted to cities 可以说是人们被吸引到城市的原因
and why there has been this continuous migration 也是为什么有持续的移民
from the countryside and into the cities. 从农村进入到城市的原因
And at some deeper level,actually drive our civilisation. 实际上 在某种更深层次上 推动着我们文明的进程
According to Geoffrey West,humankind has an ultimate number. 按照Geoffrey West所说 人类有一个极限数目
It's this extra 15% 就是这个额外的15%
or 1.15. 或1.15
He believes it's the most important driving force in humanity. 他认为这是人类最重要的推动力
This single number, 1.15, 这个单一数字 1.15
predicts our future. 预测着我们的未来
It will bring us together in ever expanding cities 它将让我们在不断扩大的城市里团结起来
and shape our destiny for as long as human beings exist. 只要人类存在 就将塑造我们的命运
Five hundred years ago,when faced with an eclipse, 500年前 当人类面对月蚀时
many of us would have believed it was the work of an angry god. 很多人会相信 是上帝愤怒的结果
But as we've unearthed the language of the Code, 但是 当我们破译密码的语言时
we've discovered that the apparent mysteries of our world 我们发现世界上的未解之谜
can be understood without invoking the supernatural. 不用启用超自然 就能被理解
And this for me is what's so remarkable. 对我而言 这是了不起的事情
That despite the incredible complexity of the world we live in, 它不顾我们居住的世界的难以置信的复杂性
it can all, ultimately,be explained by numbers. 最终 都用数字加以解释
Just like the orbit of the planets,life too follows a pattern. 就像行星运行的轨道 人生也遵循着一种模式
And it can all be reduced to cause and effect. 它可以简化为因果关系
In the end,even the flip of a coin 最后 甚至抛硬币
is determined by how fast it's spinning 都是由硬币的旋转速度
and how long it takes to hit the ground. 以及多久会落到地面来决定
The ultimate symbol of chance isn't random at all. 最终的选择标志根本不是随机的
It only appears that way. 它只是通过那种方式出现而已
When we don't understand the Code, 当我们不理解密码时
the only way we can make sense of our world is to make up stories. 我们理解我们世界的唯一方式是编故事
But the truth is far more extraordinary. 但真相更为非凡
Everything has mathematics at its heart. 任何事物在其核心都包含有数学
When everything is stripped away all that remains is the Code. 当一切事物的表面现象都被揭开 所生的就是密码
Find clues to help you solve the Code's treasure hunt at... 找到线索 以便帮助你解答密码的寻宝游戏 在……
Plus get a free set of mathematical puzzles and a treasure hunt clue 另 可以获得一套免费的数学智力谜题和一个寻宝线索
when you follow the links to the Open University. 链接到 开放大学
Or call 0845 366 8026. 或 致电 0845 366 8026
Subtitles by Red Bee Media Ltd 字幕制作：红蜜蜂媒体有限公司（荣誉出品^_）
E-mail subtitling@bbc.co.uk 电子邮箱：subtitling@bbc.co.uk